"Hoarding behavior signals when shortages become structural The speaker described how China banning refined product exports weeks into the Strait crisis was a warning sign that most markets missed: countries were shifting from trade participants to hoarders. He cited Jeff Curry's insight that "when countries start worrying about their own situation... they start hoarding things. They start building inventory" — exactly what happened with masks at the start of COVID. The practical takeaway is that when you observe governments or large institutions moving from net exporters to hoarders of any commodity, treat it as a signal of structural shortage, not temporary disruption, and adjust exposure accordingly. Source: Anonymous Guest Speaker, The Pomp Podcast, Market Macro & Bitcoin Discussion"