"Recognize when past success traps future decision-making Discussing why military and political decision-makers miscalculated the duration of the Strait of Hormuz conflict, the speaker identified a cognitive trap: "sometimes you were a prisoner of your own success in terms of your decision-making." Prior quick wins in Venezuela and earlier Iran operations created overconfidence that this conflict would resolve equally fast — causing leaders and markets alike to under-prepare for a prolonged structural disruption. The same pattern applies to anyone whose recent streak of correct calls makes them dismiss new data that contradicts their working model. Source: Anonymous Guest Speaker, The Pomp Podcast, Market Macro & Bitcoin Discussion"