"Distinguish cycle types before predicting market bottoms Cowen points out that many analysts make the mistake of applying the same playbook to every four-year crypto cycle, when in fact the macro backdrop determines whether a recession is required to end the cycle. He explains that 'in 2014 we were not in a late business cycle environment so you didn't have to have a recession to end the cycle — you can have multiple four-year cycles within a single business cycle.' When the macro environment is late-cycle, historical data shows that only a recession has reliably brought asset prices to their ultimate lows. Investors who fail to distinguish between a mid-cycle correction and a late-cycle downturn risk re-entering too early and catching a falling knife. Source: Benjamin Cowen, Into The Cryptoverse, Late Business Cycle Analysis"