"Recognize late business cycles to protect capital Analyst Benjamin Cowen explains that when the broader economy enters a late business cycle — characterized by tight liquidity, elevated uncertainty, and slowing job creation — risk assets behave in a predictable hierarchy. He notes that 'in a late business cycle environment risk rolls down the curve rather than up the curve,' meaning money flows from speculative assets to safer ones: altcoins bleed to Bitcoin, Bitcoin bleeds to stocks, and stocks bleed to gold. Tracking macroeconomic indicators like the business cycle chart (S&P 500 divided by unemployment squared, multiplied by inflation and interest rates, normalized by M2) can tell investors which phase they are in. Applying this framework changes portfolio decisions from chasing speculative rallies to rotating toward lower-risk assets within each class. Source: Benjamin Cowen, Into The Cryptoverse, Late Business Cycle Analysis"