"Holding beats trading when the thesis is exponential Raoul Pal bought Bitcoin at $200 in 2013 with a target of $100,000–$1,000,000 and a stated time horizon of five-plus years, then sold at $2,500 after going up 10x — missing the subsequent move to $68,000. When he later calculated what simply holding his original position would have returned, 'I would have made five times as much money.' The root error was applying a mean-reversion trading mindset to an exponential adoption curve: 'We're all mean reversionists — we think boom equals bust, and it does not in technology.' Before taking profits on any position tied to a technology-adoption thesis, explicitly ask whether you are exiting because the thesis has changed or simply because the price has moved. Source: Raoul Pal, Real Vision, Best and Worst Trades with Raoul Pal"