"Treat hubris as a warning signal After a brilliant 2008 call on the financial crisis, Raoul Pal let pride override his own economic indicators in 2009, keeping short positions open even as his business-cycle models clearly signaled the worst was behind us. He describes the internal monologue: "Imagine the glory if I got it right again... if I called that, then I would be amazing." The result was his worst year ever, costing both himself and his clients significantly. He now treats the creeping feeling of invincibility — "every time I"ve started to believe my shit smells of roses, I've had my nose rubbed in it' — as a tactical warning to reduce risk rather than increase it. Source: Raoul Pal, Real Vision, Best and Worst Trades with Raoul Pal"