"Distinguish mobilization elections from persuasion elections The panelists drew a sharp distinction between two types of elections that most observers conflate: persuasion elections, where winning undecided voters determines the outcome, and mobilization elections, where "who shows up" is everything. Midterms, they explained, are "driven on turnout" — meaning a Republican voter who stays home is "nearly as good for" a Democrat as a Democratic voter who shows up. This framework applies beyond politics: in any competitive situation where the outcome depends on participant engagement rather than converting opponents — fundraising drives, union votes, shareholder meetings — mobilizing your existing base matters far more than persuading the other side. Source: Panel Journalists, Live Ottawa Political Forum, Trump, Canada, and American Politics Panel"