"Read bond yields to gauge political constraints During the US-Iran conflict in 2025, hosts of Bankless explained that 10-year Treasury yields rising toward 4.6–4.8% became the real constraint on presidential war-making — not public opinion or military logic. As Michael Hoffman put it, "somewhere in the 4.6 to 4.8% is where Trump folds," pointing to how the April 2025 tariff scare triggered a policy reversal once yields hit 4.6%. Anyone watching geopolitics or markets can use yield levels as a leading indicator for when powerful actors are forced to de-escalate, regardless of their stated rhetoric. Source: David Hoffman & Ryan Sean Adams, Bankless, Weekly Rollup – Iran War, Stablecoin Yield, NYSE Tokenization"